what is at stake at the UN climate summit and what can it achieve?

What is Cop31?

From 9-20 November, world leaders, ministers and high-ranking officials from more than 190 countries are expected to convene in Antalya in Turkey, for the annual UN climate talks. This year, the summit will be hosted by Turkey, but in an unusual twist the negotiations will be presided over by Australia in a compromise deal struck after the two countries vied for the presidency.

While nearly all of the 196 original signatories of the 2015 Paris climate agreement are expected to be present, one glaring absence will be the US, whose president, Donald Trump, has withdrawn from Paris.

How will co-convening work?

Australia will take charge of the formal negotiations where countries thrash out the details of work programmes such as the “just transition”, climate finance and putting the world on track to stick as closely as possible to the Paris agreement goal of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Turkey will take charge of the “action agenda”, the voluntary agreements that work towards the Paris goals but are not legally binding: programmes on cutting waste and achieving a circular economy, cutting methane, improving food security, and – perhaps most important – the electrification of the global economy.

What are likely to be the key issues?

The Paris goal of 1.5C has been breached, but the UN argues that rapid action to cut greenhouse gas emissions would limit the “overshoot” and allow for a return to lower temperatures by the end of this century. For that to happen, countries need to break dependence on fossil fuels and adopt low-carbon technologies faster. The two roadmaps from Brazil – on the “transition away from fossil fuels” and on halting deforestation – will present ways of doing so.

Developing countries are also in dire need of help to cope with the hastening impacts of the climate crisis. After the disaster in Nepal, the country has been granted access to the global fund for “loss and damage” – the rescue and rehabilitation of communities stricken by climate-related disasters. But it is not enough, and poor countries also lack the means to adapt their infrastructure to worsening extreme weather.

Rich countries have been cutting their overseas aid, while rising interest rates have loaded further debt on to the poor.

What about fossil fuels?

It was not until 2023 at Cop28 that the final agreement directly addressed fossil fuels for the first time, due to long-term strident opposition from producing countries. The agreement included a resolution to “transition away from fossil fuels” but no deadline or plan for doing so. It is still tricky to get fossil fuels directly on to the Cop agenda, which requires consensus from nearly all parties, but this year the issue will be addressed through a non-binding “roadmap” for the global transition away from fossil fuels.

What would success look like?

Given the tense and fragile geopolitical situation – some commentators believe we are already in the midst of an unacknowledged third world war, while inflation and a rising far right are upsetting economies – countries might be tempted to settle for a quiet meeting.

But there are hopes for a better outcome, which could include: acceptance of the plans Brazil has produced and a promise to carry them forward; progress on climate finance for developing countries; a resolution to the row over climate science that has plagued recent meetings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; and the fleshing out of the “just transition mechanism” designed to help workers reliant on fossil fuels to adjust to a low-carbon economy.

Progress is also possible through Cop-related means outside the formal negotiations. Earlier this year, more than 60 countries, including the UK, the EU and dozens of developing nations, gathered in Colombia to vow to “transition away from fossil fuels”. This “coalition of the willing” could be boosted at Cop31 by new members, as well as fresh impetus from the recent success of political movements in several countries – Brazil, Canada, Serbia, Hungary and the US in states that decisively rejected Donald Trump at the midterms.

What can be achieved without the US?

Several prominent members of the US Congress may attend, along with businesspeople and US civil society groups, so there will be representation beyond the White House’s absence. Trump appears intent on boosting fossil fuel interests as much as possible in the US, but with oil prices still high after his war in Iran, the economics of low-carbon energy look ever more favourable.

Are there any reasons to be cheerful?

The geopolitics and the technology. Although the winds of conflict have upended international relations, they have also shown countries can benefit from the energy security that results from decentralised renewable generation. China’s oil imports, for instance, are likely to be down about 12% this year owing to a massive uptake of electric vehicles, and its renewable generation capacity has now outstripped coal. This is saving billions of dollars for consumers and businesses as the oil price soars.

Solar is booming in Africa at last, while in Pakistan a consumer-led rooftop revolution now produces about a quarter of the electricity used. Close to half of new cars in countries from Vietnam to some EU members are now electric.

Electrification will be a key focus of Cop31, and the high efficiency of electric technology means it could reduce the amount of primary energy use by half across the world, according to University of Oxford professor Jan Rosenow.

Politically, the re-election of Lula as president in Brazil has also cheered climate supporters. Lula will attend Cop, his first international visit since re-election, and is likely to be a fiery presence, showing progressive parties around the world how to win while championing the climate.