Despite the fallout from the 7 October attacks, three years of war and widespread public dissatisfaction, Benjamin Netanyahu emerged from Israel’s election with his political position strengthened, even as neither political bloc is assured of a parliamentary majority.
Israel faces three possible outcomes following an inconclusive parliamentary election: a unity government, a minority administration or fresh elections, according to former Israeli government spokesman Eylon Levy.
The political deadlock comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stages what Levy described to Euronews as an “extraordinary comeback”.
“All of those are going to require someone to surrender on some very serious coalition promises,” Levy said.
Netanyahu’s political survival
For Netanyahu the election represents a remarkable political recovery after years of mounting pressure over the security failures surrounding the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023, the subsequent war and domestic divisions.
“This is an extraordinary comeback for Netanyahu, despite the October 7th massacre that happened on his watch, despite three years of war since then, despite huge public unrest and dissatisfaction over his alliance with the ultra-orthodox parties and their demand for an exemption from military service,” Levy told Euronews.
Yet his electoral gains do not necessarily translate into a governing majority.
“Netanyahu has lost his majority. It seems it’s unlikely that he will hold on to a majority. But unless someone else manages to form a government, he remains the caretaker prime minister,” Levy said.
That leaves Netanyahu in a potentially advantageous position: his rivals must assemble an alternative coalition, while failure to do so could extend his tenure as caretaker prime minister.
Could Arab parties decide who governs Israel?
Arab parties have made substantial gains in Israel’s parliamentary election, with early projections pointing to potentially record representation in the Knesset.
Their performance has brought the politically sensitive question of their role in forming the next government back into focus.
Their support could prove decisive in determining whether Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main opposition challenger, can assemble an alternative government, although several opposition figures have ruled out governing with them.
Levy said the possibility of an Eisenkot-led minority government supported by some Arab parties had been discussed, but warned that such an arrangement could provoke a political backlash.
“Leaders within the change block are warning that would be extremely unpopular and would backlash and end up giving Netanyahu an even bigger majority in the next election,” he said.
Levy pointed to deep ideological divisions between mainstream Israeli parties and Arab political factions, particularly over Hamas.
He singled out Mansour Abbas, leader of the Arab Ra’am party, which participated in Israel’s 2021–2022 governing coalition.
Although Abbas has condemned the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October, he has repeatedly declined to explicitly describe Hamas as a terrorist organisation, a position Levy cited as an obstacle to political cooperation.
“So they are still kryptonite for most of the mainstream parties,” Levy said.
“Either we go back to elections or someone folds and sues for peace and joins his coalition,” Levy said.
Source: www.euronews.com
